The Knicks of course were able to land one big free agent, Amare Stoudemire. But what does this really mean for the lowly Knicks? The entire nation waited until 9pm ET, on July 8, to hear where Lebron James was going. He stabbed Cleveland in the back, and chose not to go to the Knicks. The Knicks then acquired Kelenna Azubukie, Anthony Randolph, and Ronny Turiaf in a sign and trade deal for (now former) fan favorite, David Lee.

We all know Amare Stoudemire is all all-star. But can he be an all-star on this team. Stoudemire is locked into a 5 year deal with the Knicks. He of course does not have nearly the same talent that surrounded him in Phoenix. So in this 5 year deal, how many solid years can the Knicks really get out of Stoudemire?

First let’s note that Stoudemire will turn 28 in the second month of the season. Therefore he will be 33 in the second month of his fifth season. Second, we must note that he has already has knee problems in the past. Third lets assume that regardless of what other moves the Knicks make for this season, it still will not be enough to support Amare Stoudemire.

So year 1 of his contract is wasted. Expectations again will not be high with Stoudemire on the team this year, although in theory, the Knicks should have maybe their best season in the last 5 years but that isn’t saying much.

Fast forward to year two. Assuming incredibly optimistic circumstances, let’s say Carmelo Anthony chooses not to sign an extension this year and chooses to test the free agent market next year. (We are also assuming the NBA will not be in a lockout). And let’s say the Knicks are fortunate enough to sign Carmelo Anthony. Well now you have Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. Now that’s a team. Assume a 3 year deal and assume this paring can attract other solid players as well although the cap space will not be as empty as it was this year. You can throw Tony Parker into the mix here if you want. Next year, the Knicks with this lineup should be a playoff team. So in year 2 of Stoudemire’s contract, lets assume the Knicks have their best year in 11 years and make a nice push to the playoffs. They of course most likely would not win a championship.

Moving along to year 3 of Stoudemire’s contract, lets assume a similar year to year 2 with the same players around.

Year 4 is now complicated. Stoudemire is now 31 years old (when November rolls around). Are we assuming that with the knee problems Stoudemire already had in the past, by age 31 as the real face of the franchise at this point he is going to be healthy? It is really hard to assume that he will be. Even someone with healthy knees, may start to feel a grind by the time year 31 of their life comes along. Assume a down year for the Knicks here.

Year 4 is wasted.

Year 5 can’t be any better than year 4. Stoudemire is only older now. Assume year 5 is wasted too.

So, we take a look at this 5 year $99.7 million contract and it appears as though only 2 years are worthwhile. That of course is also assuming optimistic circumstances (Carmelo Anthony/Tony Parker). If the Knicks can’t find a supporting cast, all you have here in my opinion is a potential Stephon Marbury. A guy who was really supposed to turn the franchise around and be this big time star, and really none of that happened.

It could be a bumpy ride folks…

–Mark Elliot Wishnia–